Why the US Economy May Be Heading for a Recession by Late 2026
The US economy ended 2025 on shaky ground, and the early signals for 2026 aren't looking much better. While recession calls have come and gone over the past few years — often proving premature — the current convergence of weakening indicators across GDP, coincident activity measures, freight, and transportation-linked equities paints a picture that's harder to dismiss. Here's what the data is telling us, and why a recession by the second or third quarter of 2026 is a realistic scenario.