Tag: federal reserve

The Federal Reserve held its ground today, keeping the federal funds rate at 3½ to 3¾ percent following its March 17-18 meeting. The decision was nearly unanimous. Only Stephen Miran dissented, preferring a quarter-point cut, and this signals that the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode as it navigates a familiar tension: solid economic growth on one side, stubbornly elevated inflation on the other.

The US economy ended 2025 on shaky ground, and the early signals for 2026 aren't looking much better. While recession calls have come and gone over the past few years — often proving premature — the current convergence of weakening indicators across GDP, coincident activity measures, freight, and transportation-linked equities paints a picture that's harder to dismiss. Here's what the data is telling us, and why a recession by the second or third quarter of 2026 is a realistic scenario.